Two contradictory realities are highlighted in the 2024 college admissions cycle. Top-tier universities had the lowest admissions rates and more socioeconomically diverse applicants. However, equal opportunity does not necessarily mean greater economic inclusion at the top institutions. The number of Americans with low incomes enrolled in college has decreased since 2014. In contrast to previous generations, young Americans are more interested in earning a paycheck than long-term careers. The future will be more global and technologically oriented, with more opportunities and wealth for the educated elite than the lower-skilled workforce.
The “golden age” of American higher education, between 1960-1970, when tuitions remained constant and investment in college campuses skyrocketed, saw an increase in college enrollments. This may have been due to changing demographics (the Baby Boomer Generation began enrolling at universities in the mid-1970s), greater financial access to college via federal grants, or cultural shifts in perceptions of higher education. No matter the reason, between 1965 and 2014, US universities saw an increase in student enrollment from 5.92million to 20.2million students. The peak was 21.01 million in 2011. However, registrations began to fall after 2014, only accelerated by the Covid-19 pandemic.
In the United States, 24 states have experienced an average drop of 4 percent in university admissions since 2019. Five states, including Alaska, Michigan, and New Mexico, have seen enrollment declines more significant than 10%. The pandemic created doubts in the minds of young adults, who were already hesitant about going to college due to economic uncertainty and job hardships. Recent high school graduates began to doubt the value of higher education. They opted instead for low-paying jobs right after high school.
However, the perception that immediate employment will lead to economic prosperity after high school is a mistake. The reality is that college graduates have significantly higher lifetime earnings than those who don’t have a college degree. Georgetown University found that the median lifetime earnings of college graduates are directly linked to their educational attainment. This means that Americans with a high school diploma average $1.6 million in lifetime earnings. A worker with a bachelor’s degree makes an average of 2.8million dollars. This is 75 percent more than those who only have a high school diploma. Individuals with a master’s degree earn more over their lifetime earnings, totaling $3.2 million. These significant wage differences create huge wealth disparities in America over the long term.
Due to the current economic inequality in America, the drop in enrollments doesn’t affect all economical classes equally. Before the pandemic, students of higher income were more likely than others to enroll at four-year colleges. This trend is evident according to an analysis by the University of Pennsylvania. The median income for a family that sent their children to college in 2024 was $58,500. This is 89 percent more than the median income for a family that didn’t send their children to college. Students who go to two-year colleges have a 39% lower median income than those who attend four-year universities. As the gap in wealth between college-bound students and non-college students grows, the effect of declining enrollment will be more powerful.
As elite colleges in America become more selective, this growing gap will only worsen. The number of top-ranked institutions has increased dramatically since removing the standardized testing requirement. However, acceptance rates have declined. In 2024, acceptance rates at the top ten most challenging universities in America were below 8%. Despite falling admission rates, top-tier universities continue to boast diverse student populations and financial aid programs. Although it is true that colleges now accept a more comprehensive range of students, this shouldn’t be confused with higher equity in college admissions. The United States will see a decrease in human capital due to lower enrollment and increased competition.
The American workforce will be affected by the decline in enrollment. The acceptance rates of top-tier colleges will drop, but most Americans who have not completed college will grow. We might not be in a “golden age” for higher education. Instead, we may be in a new “gilded era,” where elites will continue to thrive in close-knit, highly-educated circles. At the same time, the bottom quintiles experience a stagnating quality of life.
